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Post #106

RU POV: Russian advances from Day 944 and 945 of the War - Suriyakmaps

Sep 25, 2024 — Sep 26, 2024 War Day 944–945

Pictures 1 to 4 are from Day 944 (Wednesday 25 September), and pictures 5 to 7 are from Day 945 (Thursday 26 September).

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A reminder that these maps are confirming updates from previous days (i.e. 12 to 48 hours delayed from each day).

Ukrainian Advance
0.00 km²
Overall (set): 0.00 km²
Russian Advance
15.76 km²
Net Change
-15.76 km²

Situation Snapshots

Imagery, commentary, and territorial changes from the period.

7 entries
Russian Forces Advance: 0.18 km²

Advance = 0.18km2

In Makiivka, Russian troops were confirmed to have made a small bit of progress on the western side of the village, capturing some houses. At this stage there remains only a few buildings left for Russia to capture to gain control over the entire settlement.
Russian Forces Advance: 2.15 km²

Top Advance = 1.61km2, Bottom Advance = 0.54km2

On the Pokrovsk front, to the north Russian assault groups re-entered Mykolaivka, taking over the eastern side, as well as capturing the remainder of Krasnyi Yar. This comes 2 weeks after Ukraine counterattacked in this area, driving Russia back slightly. Russian troops will need to capture the remainder of Mykolaivka, as well as the fields to the west, before they can consider assaulting Myrnohrad.

To the south, Russian troops made a small bit of progress west of Ukrainsk, capturing more of the field and treelines next to the railway.
Russian Forces Advance: 8.91 km²

Top Left Advance = 3.30km2, Top Right Advance = 3.33km2, Bottom Advance = 2.28km2 (combined)

On the Vuhledar front, Russian troops have continued their attacks in multiple areas. On the northern side, Russian assault groups captured the remainder of the fields near the main road next to Kostyantynivka (above the a), as well as continuing their push through the fields towards Katerynivka. The former advance likely happened a few days ago, following the Russian push south of the Solodka River, as holding that area became impossible for Ukraine due to being exposed on their flanks.

Around Vuhledar itself, Russian forces continued closing in on all sides, with the situation being catastrophic for Ukraine. As I mentioned last update, Ukrainian command had left it far too late to try and evacuate their forces from Vuhledar, with those troops now effectively trapped inside the town. Whilst Russia does not quite yet physically encircle the town, the small remaining route out is under their fire control. Ukraine did reportedly try to break some of its troops out by using IFVs and Tanks, however they were unsuccessful (Video 1, Video 2).

For a view of what Vuhledar looks like about now, see this post (ignore the control lines). Russia is gradually clearing the town, capturing multiple apartment buildings and part of the fields on the southeast side today (Day 944). Clearing Vuhledar will still take Russia some time, due to the complexity of the structures, sheer volume of underground passageways, and risk of ambushes, however they are in no rush. There is no need for Russia to try swiftly capture the town and take unnecessary casualties, when its already clear Ukraine will be unable to counterattack and break the remaining soldiers out.
Russian Forces Advance: 0.66 km²

Advance = 0.66km2

On the Velikaya Novoselovka front, Russian troops made a small advance west of Staromaiorkse (red dot on k), capturing a field. Operations in this area remain slow.
Russian Forces Advance: 0.86 km²

Top Advance = 0.84km2, Bottom Advance = 0.02km2

Over near Chasiv Yar, Russia troops were confirmed to have entered Hryhorivka over the past 2 days, capturing most of the village. Hryhorivka actually fell into the grey zone last week, after reports of Russian assaults and Ukraine pulling back to the forest to the west, however this could not be confirmed until now. Its unlikely Ukraine will be able to retain control of the last section of the village, and will almost certainly have to retreat west over the canal, however this will happen gradually over the next few weeks.
Russian Forces Advance: 0.85 km²

Advance = 0.85km2

Following on from Picture 2, Russian assault groups advanced north of Mykolaivka and captured several treelines and a trench network. This trench network is part of Ukraine’s last line of Defence before Myrnohrad itself, however there are still more trenches east and west of here Russia will have to capture before it can properly control the defence line.
Russian Forces Advance: 2.15 km²

Top Right Advance = 0.67km2, Middle Left Advance = 1.48km2,

Following on from Picture 3, Russian forces continue to close in around Vuhledar. On the northeast and west sides, Russia captured several fields and the small slag heap/terrikon west of the number 1 coal mine. Within Vuhledar, Russian troops were confirmed to have made some more progress, capturing another few apartment blocks along the main road.

Russia will likely physically cut off Vuhledar within the next few days, removing even the option of a suicide run north for the remaining Ukrainian troops. I can’t confirm the Russian claim that Ukrainian command ordered their troops to hold Vuhledar until Zelensky’s U.S. visit was over, however I can say it was extremely stupid of them to throw away their soldiers like this, when it was clear there was no chance to hold the town well over a week ago.

Capturing the remainder of Vuhledar, as well as properly clearing all of the structures and underground tunnels will likely take Russia at least 7 to 10 days, at least. As mentioned before, this is no problem for Russian command, as they aren’t in a rush, and their other units can just move on whilst this occurs.

Additional Point:

· Ukraine’s control of Kursk currently sits at 660.57km2. Ukraine’s maximum control in Kursk was approximately 930km2, short of their initial claim of 1000km2, and well below their revised claim of 1300km2.

· Regarding Vovchansk, because I get asked frequently why that front has seen almost no movement in months, have a look at this video. It should give you a clear idea of the state of the town, and how virtually every building has been demolished by artillery/MLRS/Fabs. Trying to advance in that is extremely difficult, hence why both sides mostly hide in the ruins and try strike each other with drones.