RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances on Day 830 and 831 of the war - Suriyakmaps

Following on from the previous update, Russian forces continued their push in Kalinina, occupying positions up to the canal itself. Ukrainian forces in this area were pushed back to the warehouses in the north, the forests in the south, or the western side of the settlement, effectively splitting them up. The northern warehouses will likely be next to fall, as Ukrainian forces have to travel round to the north to the next canal crossing to get to this area, making resupply and reinforcement difficult.

This is a bit of an odd one, but essentially it is a large correction to the front line, dating back to an incorrect Russian advance Suriyak posted...... 2 years ago. This area of the frontline has remained unchanged for so long, this mistake went unnoticed by Suriyak until the recent opportunistic Russian advance seen in picture 3 here.

Most of this the area now attributed to Ukraine was incorrectly stated as being in the grey zone, when it has actually been controlled by Ukraine the whole time. I had a look way back to when this incorrect advance first occurred, and it looks to have been a mistake due to the ambiguity of reports of Russian advances towards Charivne (blue dot). Recent geolocations have shown how far off the front lines were, hence the correction by Suriyak. There is picture in the comment chain below showing which part of this area was incorrectly shown as grey zone or Russian control.

I had a look at other mapping sources, such as Deepstate, Lostarmour, Creamy Caprice, etc., and the control of this area being attributed to Russia or the grey zone seems to be a Suriyak-only mistake. Pretty much all the other mappers showed this area as being under Ukrainian control as far back as I could see.

So what does this change?......... Nothing really. Aside from the opportunistic Russian advance, neither side has conducted any major offensive operations in this area for years, hence why it took so long to correct. If anything, it just means Ukraine has a much larger buffer around Charivne if Russia ever tries to do an advance in the future, and a much smaller Russian buffer around Luhivske.

Russian forces continued to advance out of Netailove, pushing west and southwest, taking control over all the fields on their side of the river, and capturing the houses on the eastern edge of Karlivka. Thus, the battle for Karlivka can be said to have begun.

Much like the other advances, this too was also expected to happen, as it was extremely difficult for Ukraine to contest this area due to the river hindering resupply and rotations. The challenge for Russian forces will now be to get a foothold on the other side of the river so they can position themselves for an assault on Karlivka proper. There are a number of different crossing in this area, stretching across the entire river, so it is unknown where Russia might try cross first.

Following further assaults, Russian forces captured most of Paraskoviivka, aside from <10 buildings which are now in the grey zone. These will likely fall under Russian control over the next couple of days, as Ukraine pulls back to positions closer to Kostyantynivka.

Over the past day Russian forces have had some success around Ocheretyne, recapturing the area of the railway Ukraine retook in a counterattack a few days ago, as well as pushing closer to Sokil. Whilst Russian forces have not entered the village yet, they are only approximately 200m away from the first buildings.

Over the past few days, Russian forces managed to push east out of Robotyne, capturing the trenches on the hill, that were originally built by the Russians and used during the counteroffensive.

The situation in Vovchansk, for lack of a better term, is an absolute clusterfuck. Ukraine continues to pour reinforcements into the northern side of Vovchansk, refusing to give up their foothold on that side, regardless of casualties. Talk of a large counteroffensive here by Ukrainian forces are overblown, however they are clearly pushing large numbers of troops into Vovchansk in an attempt to overwhelm the much smaller Russian force. Ukraine has used many pontoon bridges and bridging vehicles to get some forces across the river, before they get hit by Russian aviation/artillery. This has repeated over and over, with Ukraine using more pontoons and bridging vehicles here than they have anywhere since the Kherson offensive in late 2022.