RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 833 to Day 844 of the War (Part 3) - Suriyakmaps

Following on from the capture of Netailovo a few weeks ago, Russian forces advances along the forests next to the reservoir, as well as another field to the north. Russian forces are getting closer and closer to the key landbridge between the reservoirs on the Vovcha river, which is critical for Ukraine to hold.

To the south, Russian forces recaptured part of Nevelske, having been pushed out by Ukraine a month and a half ago. It will be much more difficult for Ukraine to hold Nevelske compared to a few months ago, as Russia now controlling Netailovo and surrounding fields allows them the potential to flank and attack Ukraine from behind (north).

Russian forces have made a large series of gains across almost the entire Avdiivka/Ocheretyne front. In the north, Russian forces were able to capture almost the entirety of Novooleksandrivka, after weeks of deadlock east of the town. Ukraine technically still controls a couple of houses on the north-western outskirts, however the town is effectively under Russia control.

The capture of Novooleksandrivka happened quite quickly, and with relatively little casualties, especially given the trouble Russian forces seem to have had even getting a foothold in the town. Whilst the reasoning is still unknown, a number of allegations have been made that the Ukrainian unit holding the town abandoned their positions once Russia got even a small foothold, or were simply overrun due to a lack of manpower/equipment. For now, those Ukrainian units have pulled back to neighbouring Vozdvyzhenka (north-west), however will still face similar issues holding that village as it has even fewer defences than Novooleksandrivka.

To the east, with Novooleksandrivka taken, Russian forces were able to resume their push north towards Kalynove, capturing a number of fields and trenchlines. Ukrainian forces here are in a bit of a predicament, as whilst Kalynove has a number of defences, the area west of the village has little to no trenchlines, meaning Russia may be able to bypass Kalynove and attack from behind.

To the south, Russian forces continued advancing in the fields, capturing about half of Sokil as days of back and forth combat. The Ukrainian 47th Brigade has been trying to hold this area (from Sokil to Umanske), but has lost a number of vehicles here and has been unable to push Russia back.

Russian forces captured the village of Novopokrovske relatively quickly, as the 47th Brigade did not have the infantry, nor the defences, to try hold it. The situation in the fields south of Novopokrovske is similar, with Ukraine losing field after field over the past 2 weeks, with Russia now closing in on the town of Novoselivka Persha from the east and south.

Ukraine is struggling to hold its positions in the Avdiivka area of the frontline, and is at real risk of having their main defensive line (pic below), breached.

The battle for Chasiv Yar continues. Russian forces made a series of gains in the forests north of Bohdanivka, south of the microdistrict, and south of Ivanivkse. Russian forces were unable to consolidate their control of Kalinina, and were pushed out by Ukraine in a series of counterattacks. Whilst this was going on, Russian forces managed to capture the majority of the microdistrict, having finally worn down Ukrainian forces enough to clear the tall apartment buildings. Ukraine still maintains a small presence on the edge of the microdistrict, primarily by rotating individual squads between the trenches next to the canal, the western apartment buildings.

Russian forces made a series of large gains in the hills east of Rozdolivka (blue dot) over the past 2 weeks. These gains seriously destabilise Ukrainian positions in Rozdolivka, and the other villages along the railway, as Russian forces now occupy the heights about these settlements. If Ukraine cannot stop or stall Russian advances in the hills above the villages, Ukraine will almost certainly lose control of them, as it becomes too difficult to rotate troops and resupply.

Following on from recent Russian advances in Bilohorivka, Russian forces have finally captured the chalk quarry. Russia and Ukraine have been fighting over this area for over a year and a half, with the chalk quarry holding host to both Russian and Ukrainian troops in that time. Progress was so slow here due to the chalk quarry being extremely difficult to assault, as the terrain was unstable, had no established paths/roads, and hundreds of tiny dugouts occupied by 1 or 2 soldiers. Most of the advances are due to methodically bombing every single dugout with FPV drones, over and over again, before sending individual, or pairs of soldiers to clear them.

With the chalk quarry captured, Russia will likely be able to make more progress south of Bilohorivka, but will still have trouble in the north due to the hills. Ukraine's primary issue here is the lack of manpower, with one of the battalions assigned to this area pulled north in mid-May to counter the Russian offensive, leaving fewer soldiers to guard this area.

The back and forth around Torkse continues. Russian forces made another advance towards Terny, whilst simultaneously Ukraine pushed back Russian forces by another fields to the south. Serebryansky forest continues to be a mess, with Ukrainian forces recapturing positions from Russian forces, that they lost in Late April-Early May. Clashes in the forest have been going on for over a year and a half at this point, and neither side has been able to make much progress. In all likelihood, the battle for the forest will be decided by the capture of Torkse by Russia, or Kreminna by Ukraine, and not by any developments in the forest itself.

Moving north, Russian forces continue their various advances along the Kupyansk front. In the north, Russian forces took over a small series of trenches, as well as capturing the fields on the western side of Novoselivske (red dot under S).

Further south, Russian forces captured Miasozharivka and Andriivka in a series of rapid assaults. To clear up some confusion, these are not villages, but rather groups of farm buildings, spread out over an area. Thus, it was much easier for Russia to capture these areas than many Russian sources make out.

Continuing with the Kupyansk front, Russian advances continued in the railway area. Following on from the capture of Ivanivka a few weeks ago, Russian forces expanding their control of the surrounding fields, and are quickly approaching the outskirts of Stepova Novoselivka (blue dot). Russian forces also made a small advance south of Kotlyarivka.

North-east of Kupyansk itself, the deadlock continues. Russian forces managed to recapture a section of the forest, but are still clashing with Ukrainian forces in the fields east of Synkivka. The intensity of battles in this area is still quite low compared to most other areas of the front, as neither side has many forces here, and certainly not enough for Russia or Ukraine to make advances.


As an aside, I think this post (and the other 2 parts) are a great visual of Russia's strategy of "little cuts" everywhere. On a day to day update, it becomes quite difficult to see, but when its a summary of 1.5 weeks it is much clearer. Russia is attacking in numerous places all over the front line, often only in small groups, and often only achieving little gains.

However, this is allowing them to continue to stretch Ukraine's manpower and equipment, and these little attacks all over front are starting to make (relatively) greater progress, as indicated by the increasing average daily advance. Ukraine certainly has not 'cracked', but will continue to suffer increasing territorial losses unless it can sort out its issues. For now, its more a matter of how long Russia can keep it up, and where they try to make the first real breakthrough.