RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 860 and 861 of the War - Suriyakmaps

Russian forces continued their advances north of Volodymyrivka, capturing a large portion of the fields, and continuing to close in on the O0532 road. As I've mentioned in previous updates, both Russia and Ukraine have far fewer forces in this area of the front, compared to places like Chasiv Yar, or around Ocheretyne. This has enabled Russian forces to make larger territorial gains, at a fraction of the cost, however at the end of the day these are just empty fields.

Whilst Suriyak highlights that Russian forces are now about 3km away from the main road (specifically 3.32km), Russian forces are actually closer to cutting this road around Kostyantynivka (northeast), at about 1.53km away.

Fighting continues in Krasnogorivka, with Russian forces establishing control over the last highrises in the centre of the town, and continuing to clear the first residential streets. Whilst Ukraine could turn the situation around, in all likelihood the town is lost to them, and Russia will capture the bulk of Krasnogorivka over the next few weeks.

I emphasise 'bulk of', as the other streets to the north and north-west also count as part of the town (all the way up to the ones underneath the @), so formally capturing the entirety of Krasnogorivka will take Russia even longer.

Now to the most interesting recent development around Niu-York. Russian forces have been confirmed to have broken through Ukrainian positions yesterday, and rapidly advance up the south railway and main road, as well as capturing the small village of Yurivka, and many of the Ukrainian trenchlines dating back to 2014. Russian forces are currently continuing their advance into the centre of Niu-York, and the situation is quickly unravelling for Ukrainian forces. There is also risk of Ukrainian forces in the southeastern trenches being encircled if they do not pull back to the main part of the town (pic below)

Developments in Niu-York and Toretsk are directly linked to the manpower issues that Ukraine is facing, as it simply no longer has the units available to PROPERLY man every single part of the front line, leading to gaps and weaknesses. Ukrainian forces here are almost entirely infantry based, and lack the equipment/support as much of it was sent north after the start of northern offensive in mid-May.

Russian forces have captured a number of Ukrainian positions in Pivnichne, as well as advancing up the main road over the past few days. Whilst the 'pipe operation' cannot yet be 100% confirmed/verified, there is evidence showing Russian troops moving further and further into the town. Ukrainian forces still do not have a coherent defensive strategy, and are still reeling after the rapid push forward through many of their strongest positions that began a little over a week ago.

Whilst I cannot verify this yet, Ukraine is allegedly redeploying the 95th Airborne Brigade, and 109th Territorial Defence Brigade to the Niu-York/Toretsk area to reinforce. If true, this is quite interesting, as the 95th is apparently operating in Serebryansky forest, and the 109th was pulled off the frontline due to high casualties in the Ocheretyne breakthrough, and is currently being replenished.

Following on from yesterday, Russian forces continue to advance along the railway west of Ocheretyne, and are quickly closing in on Prohres, and more importantly, the main Ukrainian line of Defence in this area.

Following Ukrainian withdrawal from the remainder of the microdistrict yesterday, Russian forces have finally captured the whole of the microdistrict. From here, Russian forces will likely continue putting pressure on Kalinina in the north, whilst attempting to probe for a foothold on the other side of the canal.

There are a couple of options for Russian forces, however none will be easy. The canal itself has a trench line running just behind it, which will make crossing difficult. Even in the forest areas to the north and south of the microdistrict, where the pipe area is, Ukraine has dug in and it will not be easy to get a foothold on the other side. There is also the possibility Russia may try to cross the canal to the south, near Ivanivske, in order to bypass some of the defences.

In the north, Russian forces are closing in on the town of Makiivka (blue dot) from the north. This is in addition to a separate Russian assault force that is currently just outside Makiivka on the southeastern side of the town. These 2 separate assault forces will likely try overwhelm the Ukrainian defenders, and establish a foothold on the eastern side of the river.

Following on from picture 4, Russian forces are continuing to advance up the southern road, and have taken over the first few apartment buildings in central Pivnichne. Clashes are currently ongoing in the central area, with some recent geolocated videos showing Russian forces close to the main road.

Another old error/missed advance that has recently come to light is west of Piatijatky, near the Dnieper river. The forest area was incorrectly marked as grey zone, whilst it was actually occupied by Ukrainian forces. This advance likely occurred over a year ago, during the first few weeks of the counteroffensive, and this area of the front has been dormant ever since. This correction came to light due to a recent geolocated Russian FPV drone strike.