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Post #62

RU POV: Russian and Ukrainian advances from Day 862 to 864 of the War - Suriyakmaps

Jul 5, 2024 — Jul 7, 2024 War Day 862–864

Pictures 1 and 2 are from Day 862, Pictures 3 and 4 are from Day 863, and Pictures 5 to 9 are from Day 864

Ukrainian Advance
0.63 km²
Overall (set): 0.62 km²
Russian Advance
10.26 km²
Net Change
-9.63 km²

Situation Snapshots

Imagery, commentary, and territorial changes from the period.

9 entries
Russian Forces Advance: 3.66 km²

Top Advance = 0.65km2, Middle Advance = 0.64km2, Bottom Advance = 2.37km2

Russian advances around Ocheretyne continue. In the north, Russian forces pushed southwest from Novooleksandrivka (top red dot), towards the village of Lozuvatske, capturing a few trenches. To the south, Russian forces made some more progress heading west towards Prohres, as well as capturing the village of Voskhod.
Russian Forces Advance: 2.06 km²

Advance = 2.06km2

Russian forces crossed the border in another area of Kharkiv, taking over the village of Sotnytskyi Kozachok. To answer the question on everyone's mind, no, this is not the opening of a new front (at this stage). Russian recon forces simply crossed the border here, in an area where Ukraine does not have any forces. It is being marked as Russian controlled, compared to grey zone (like in picture 9), as there is evidence that Russian forces have stayed in the village, and established a presence there, rather than going back over the border.

For now, this is not an area of concern for Ukraine, however it does force them to divert some of their attention and resources, in case Russia does decide to properly open up the front here.
Ukrainian Forces Advance: 0.28 km²

Top Left Advance = 0.01km2, Top Right Advance = 0.26km2, Bottom Advance = 0.01km2

Heavy fighting continues in Vovchansk for another day. Russian forces made some small progress in the highrise area, capturing 2 more buildings, whilst just to the south Ukrainian forces managed to capture some of the small shops on the other side of the main street. To the east, Ukrainian forces captured the last of the eastern streets, and will turn their attention to the north/central part of the town next. Once again, the back and forth clashes will continue.
Russian Forces Advance: 0.96 km²

Advance = 0.96km2

Following on from Picture 1, Russian forces advanced out of Voskhod, capturing the adjacent fields. Most of this area has fallen into the grey zone as Ukraine has pulled back to their defences around Novoselivka Persha, and there are no more Ukrainian controlled crossings over the river and streams to the north of Voskhod.

Ukrainian defence of Novoselivka Persha will be a bit complicated, as most of the trenches/defences here were designed for an attack from the south or east, not from the north. This is due to them being constructed prior to the Ocheretyne breakthrough, when the only direction Russia could approach them from was south and east.
Ukrainian Forces Advance: 0.35 km²

Advance = 0.35km2

Ukrainian forces restarted their attacks towards Hlyboke, having paused for a few days. Geolocated footage has shown Ukrainian forces have cross the stream, and entered the warhouses in northern Hlyboke. This flanking attack puts pressure on Russian forces in central Hlyboke, however a full encriclement is unlikely due to the stream and reservoir on the north side of the village.

Ukrainian forces here already under attack (as seen in the beginning of this video), and whether they are able to hold the warehouses (and thus this flank) will be determined in the coming days.
Russian Forces Advance: 0.33 km²

Advance = 0.33km2

Russian forces made a small advance towards Pishchane, capturing another treeline.

Russian Forces Advance: 3.14 km²

Advance = 3.14km2

Russian forces captured the village of Spirne, after 2 years of long fighting. The village itself is nothing but rubble now, having been the location of fighting since Russia pushed out from Lysychansk almost 2 years ago. The village has traded control between the warring nations multiple times so far, despite being of little strategic importance. Russian MoD announced the capture of Spirne a week ago, however evidence of its full capture was only confirmed yesterday. From here, Russian forces will consolidate their positions, before moving west towards Ivano-Darivka.
Russian Forces Advance: 0.11 km²

Advance = 0.11km2

Russian forces continued their attacks into Niu-York for another day. Whilst they did enter the central part of the town yesterday, they were forced back by a Ukrainian counterattack, pulling back to the railway. Russian forces will almost certainly make more attempts to enter the centre of the town, in conjunction with their advances along the eastern main road.

Earlier speculation regarding Russian forces in this area has now been confirmed. The squads and units involved in the earlier deep push into Niu-York are smaller infantry groups, and no large Russian force (e.g. thousands of them) exists in this area. Whilst these units do have artillery, FPV and FAB support, there has been a lack of tanks and IFVs seen employed by the Russians here, with only a few armoured cars and APCs seen so far. Had this been a large Russian force, they may have been able to overrun the Ukrainian garrison by now, however Ukraine would also have likely noticed the buildup, and deployed more forces of its own.
Context Advance: 0.00 km²

No advance, greyzone expanded

Over the past few days, Russian recon groups have crossed the border in a number of different areas of Sumy Oblast. These recon groups are quite small, entirely infantry based, and have quickly pulled back over the border after doing some recon of the border villages/towns. For now, it is far too early to talk of a Russian offensive into Sumy, however these small recon groups probing into Ukrainian territory are definitely a cause of concern for Ukraine.

With manpower and equipment issues across the front, and being bogged down fighting in Lyptsi/Vovchansk, Ukraine cannot afford another front opening up in Sumy, but also cannot spare the forces to reinforce these border areas. Russia may just be trying to get Ukraine to divert forces to Sumy, at the expense of other fronts, or may seriously be probing for an opening to launch a Sumy offensive from. Only time will tell.